Economic news and analysis

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Understand Türkiye’s economic shifts to navigate today’s risks and opportunities. Read key insights and download our full guide.

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With only a few weeks' worth of data available, the models show much greater uncertainty than usual. This is further exacerbated by the current highly volatile geopolitical context. Nevertheless, we can already see growth slowing and inflation rising. This is the worst possible scenario for a government seeking to reassure critical rating agencies. This is all the more problematic given that neighbouring European countries are increasing fiscal spending and growing faster than we are.

Geopolitics is shifting towards a multipolar system (United States, China, Iran, etc.), where the balance of power is based on strategic strengths rather than a single dominant power.  
Modern conflicts and dependence on resources (energy, critical minerals) are reshaping economic and military priorities. Investment in these sectors is crucial for both states and businesses. 
Alliances and trade agreements are multiplying to reduce vulnerabilities, driven by a logic of strategic cooperation rather than unilateral dependence.

Financial markets have just experienced significant turbulence, with the conflict between the USA and Iran rapidly escalating into a wider flare-up across the Middle East. This has been accompanied by a surge in the price of many commodities, led by oil. As is often the case, this crisis came without warning. At stock market level, however, the impact has ultimately been short-lived, with most of the losses recorded in March now erased. Nevertheless, the situation remains tense.