Economic news and analysis

If there is one country whose public debt story deserves our attention at the end of 2025, it is Japan. Despite its astronomical size, Japanese debt usually attracts little interest. This situation has persisted for so long that the recent turbulence has taken many by surprise.

Are new investment opportunities still possible in the face of rising trade tensions? How will the Belgian, European and global economies develop? What challenges and opportunities lie ahead for Belgian companies? And what about the stock market?

Our first nowcast for the current fourth quarter confirms the stable growth seen in recent months. With one month behind us, we estimate quarterly growth at 0.3%, in collaboration with Ghent University. This is the same as the flash estimate sent out by the National Bank at the end of October for the third quarter.

Needing to cut its primary deficit by 3% of GDP within four years, Belgium faces a major fiscal challenge. Historical examples from EU and OECD countries show that expenditure-led consolidation is most effective and tends to support stronger growth afterwards. Belgium can learn from these patterns, but implementation will be difficult.

The appreciation of the gold price in recent years can partly be explained by central banks seeking to diversify their reserves. Yet the gold market remains opaque and full of mystery. Understanding, analysing and predicting gold demand is a real puzzle for analysts.

The GDP figures for the third quarter, published this Thursday, confirm that the German economy remains sluggish. Despite efforts by Chancellor Friedrich Merz, the long-awaited upturn has yet to materialise. Meanwhile, business leaders are beginning to show signs of impatience.