Economic news and analysis

Our flash forecast a few weeks back confirmed the National Bank of Belgium’s nowcast earlier this summer of a Belgian economy with zero growth in Q2. It was clear that rising fuel prices due to the conflict in the Middle East would be affecting growth. The euro zone was experiencing a slowdown before the summer, albeit somewhat limited by Ireland’s strong performance. 

Stock markets have been soaring to new highs for years, even amid a complex geopolitical climate that might otherwise deter investors. Several factors explain this phenomenon.

After the discovery of nuclear power, the first application was the atomic bomb, not the power plant. Regulation rarely comes about proactively. Will it take an AI disaster before we put clear international rules in place?

A faster climate transition produces relative winners and losers compared to the baseline scenario. In a slower scenario, there are only losers.

The tariffs that Donald Trump has imposed since his return as President of the United States in January 2025 are intended to reduce the US trade deficit. In the crosshairs: China. Has this tariff policy succeeded in restoring the balance between the US and China? Not really. After all, figures from June 2026 show that the US is still importing on a massive scale from abroad. 

Belgium consistently spends more than it receives. As a result, the budget deficit is growing and public debt is rising. At the same time, it is becoming increasingly expensive to finance this debt. If we don’t take timely action, the financial markets may later force us to adopt much stricter measures.