Economic news and analysis

Financial markets have just experienced significant turbulence, with the conflict between the USA and Iran rapidly escalating into a wider flare-up across the Middle East. This has been accompanied by a surge in the price of many commodities, led by oil. As is often the case, this crisis came without warning. At stock market level, however, the impact has ultimately been short-lived, with most of the losses recorded in March now erased. Nevertheless, the situation remains tense.

Inflation, growth, rates, currencies… Koen De Leus and Filip Moens analyse the economic impacts of the conflict in the Middle East and discuss the options available to help our clients manage these risks.

Developed countries are ageing rapidly, putting pressure on social security systems. Our Ageing Vulnerability Index, based on 5 indicators, reveals which economies are most financially exposed to rising pension and healthcare costs.

Increasingly intelligent AI has the potential to boost productivity across many sectors. However, time savings are only one way in which this technology could transform our lives. Could AI soon trigger a wave of scientific discoveries? If so, the way scientific results are communicated may need to change. This would have both advantages and disadvantages.

Is there a chance that traffic through the Strait of Hormuz will increase again soon? The chances of a partial normalisation appear to be rising. At least, that's what Polymarket, a prediction market, suggests. However, this should be treated with caution given the rumours of insider trading. The signal from commodity markets is clearer: oil and gas prices have fallen since the announcements earlier this week. However, they remain very high, and the impact is gradually being felt in the Belgian economy.

Europe is economically the richest region in the world, alongside the United States. Yet the continent is structurally weak in one crucial area: energy. It has very limited domestic fossil fuel reserves, imports almost everything and is therefore highly sensitive to any disruption to the global market. This is not a temporary issue. It is a long-standing structural vulnerability.