Iran crisis: what impact for Belgian businesses?

Key takeaways

•    The crisis in the Middle East will lead to slower growth and higher inflation, and there is even a risk of stagflation in the most pessimistic scenario.
•    This is already visible in rising energy costs, which are likely to be followed by a broader increase in prices.
•    Certain sectors are particularly affected, including transport, oil, chemicals and construction.
•    European and Belgian businesses must become more independent and diversified, for example with regard to fossil fuels, export markets and supply chains.
•    Shocks are becoming the norm. Businesses must prepare for them to become more resilient.

Rising energy prices and declining confidence…

On 28 February 2026, Iran was hit by air strikes. The conflict quickly spreads across the region. The Strait of Hormuz is blocked and the global economy begins to seize up on a scale not seen in more than 50 years. But what impact will this have on Belgian businesses? Koen De Leus explains.

“The most visible effects of the crisis today are the increase in oil and gas prices, and therefore also in transport, heating, and electricity costs. These increases affect both households and businesses, resulting in lower purchasing power and declining confidence among entrepreneurs and consumers.”

…and delayed economic effects

In addition to the impact on energy prices, further price increases are expected, leading to a significant rise in inflation. “We expect a broader increase in prices for various reasons. Rising oil prices, for example, will affect the price of plastics. Another example? Many fertilisers come from the Middle East, so their prices are inevitably rising too. This has a direct impact on the agricultural sector, which may in turn affect the price of vegetables, among other things.”

Transport, chemicals, construction… Most exposed sectors

“Which sectors seem to be the most exposed in Belgium? Chemicals, oil, transport and construction,” Koen De Leus continues. “The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is driving prices up and creating a risk of shortages. Economic sectors that depend on the affected raw materials are therefore on the front line. Energy-intensive businesses are, of course, concerned, but they are not the only ones. For example, there is a significant risk of a helium shortage, as much of the world's helium is produced in the Middle East. Yet helium is an essential raw material for manufacturing computer chips, so this could affect businesses that depend on them.”

A weaker competitive position for our businesses?

Even though the economic consequences are global, is the current crisis affecting European and Belgian businesses more severely? Koen De Leus explains: “Unlike the United States, Europe imports much of its energy and is far more dependent on external suppliers. In fact, the US even exports oil and gas! Gas prices are currently falling on the US market. This makes our businesses more vulnerable and slightly less competitive.”

The impact of inflation on labour costs

And what about Belgium? “Inflation will have a significant impact on our businesses. It will hover around 3.5% in 2026, and could even reach 5% or more if the crisis continues until the end of the year,” says Koen De Leus. “Given Belgium’s automatic wage indexation mechanism, in the baseline scenario this could translate into wage increases of 4% in 2027. Even if inflation-driven labour cost increases are likely to spread to other countries as well, this will happen later than in Belgium. In the meantime, this weakens the competitive position of our businesses.”

What scenarios for the Belgian economy?

Koen De Leus: "In any case, we expect the economy to slow down. If the situation is resolved quickly, growth, which was estimated at 1% for 2026 before the crisis, will fall to 0.7%. However, if the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked for several more weeks or months, the slowdown will likely be more pronounced, with growth dropping to 0.4%. In the most pessimistic scenario, where the conflict continues until the end of the year, stagflation could be on the horizon. In other words, zero growth or even a slight recession combined with high inflation. Talk of stagflation brings back memories of the 1970s, even though I was very young at the time, and that is somewhat frightening. Have we really entered a new era?”

When a succession of economic shocks becomes the norm

From the Covid crisis to the war in Ukraine and conflicts in the Middle East, recent years have seen the emergence of a world and economic landscape that is radically different from what we once knew. "Eighty per cent of the major shocks of the past 15 years have occurred since 2020,' recalls Koen De Leus. 'This accelerating succession of shocks has, in some ways, become the new normal. Businesses and entrepreneurs must adapt to move forward."

There are financial mechanisms and products that allow businesses to protect themselves against certain shocks, such as rising oil prices or currency volatility. However, Koen De Leus adds that this is not necessarily a realistic solution for SMEs and small entrepreneurs because these tools can be technical and perhaps even too complex for a small organisation to implement.

Breaking free from our dependencies

So, how should SMEs, entrepreneurs and our economies adapt to this new context? "It is essential that we reduce our dependencies," says Koen De Leus. "The current crisis demonstrates the importance of the ongoing energy transition to free Europe from fossil fuels. We must also learn to become less dependent on the United States, both for exports and defence. The same naturally applies to our reliance on raw materials from China. Europe is already moving in this direction by concluding new trade agreements with countries such as India, Mercosur and Australia.”

Resilience as a goal for Belgian SMEs and entrepreneurs

"This diversification mindset should also guide Belgian entrepreneurs," says Koen De Leus. "Opening up to new markets creates opportunities that entrepreneurs should seize. However, diversification is equally important at the level of the supply chain. Businesses must avoid depending on a single supplier and ensure they have backup solutions in case of failure. This is crucial for preventing production delays or shutdowns during a crisis that affects a supplier.”

Moving from ‘Just in Time’ to ‘Just in Case’

In other words, SMEs and entrepreneurs must become more resilient. “Our businesses must be capable of absorbing future shocks and crises. This includes preparing for all possible worst-case scenarios. On that basis, businesses need to move from a ‘Just in Time’ logic to a ‘Just in Case’ approach, ensuring there is always an alternative ready in case of unexpected events.”

Investing now to be stronger tomorrow

Even though this preparation will have financial consequences, Koen De Leus believes it will be worthwhile. "Yes, it may cost more, but above all, it will make businesses stronger and more resilient. In the event of a shock, your business will be in a stronger position than competitors. While it may only take you a few days to adapt, less prepared businesses may need months to recover. The customers they can no longer supply may turn to you instead. The question is therefore no longer whether another shock will occur or whether it can be avoided. The major challenge today is to be sufficiently prepared, resilient and agile to deal with it,” concludes Koen De Leus.