- 10/10/2024

The Nobel hour approaches: could Acemoğlu be the lucky winner?

2 min

Who will win the “Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel”? Economics was not one of the five original Nobel Prizes established by Alfred Nobel’s will almost 130 years ago. The Swedish central bank created the economics prize to mark its 300th anniversary. Here are some of our favourites.

Daron Acemoğlu

The perennial favourite on this list, Daron Acemoğlu, a professor at MIT, is a leading figure in institutional economics and economic growth. His book Why Nations Fail, co-written with James A. Robinson, explores how political and economic institutions shape the fate of nations. Acemoğlu’s work highlights how inclusive institutions drive prosperity, while extractive institutions hinder development.

In The Narrow Corridor, also co-written with Robinson, Acemoğlu extended these ideas, arguing that the most prosperous societies balance the parallel growth of social and governmental forces. It’s a brilliantly elegant model, though Why Nations Fail reads more as a retrospective analysis than a predictive framework. That could change with his latest book, Power & Progress, where Acemoğlu dives headfirst into the debate on artificial intelligence and its regulation.

Robert Barro

Robert Barro of Harvard University has made significant contributions to understanding economic growth and business cycles. An anti-Keynesian, he has studied the rationality of households, positing that families receiving government aid should prepare to repay this support later through higher taxes. This concept, initially introduced as the “Ricardian Equivalence Theory,” was developed further through Barro’s theoretical work.

Matthew Rabin

Also associated with Harvard, Matthew Rabin is a pioneer in behavioural economics. By integrating psychological concepts into economic models, Rabin has deepened our understanding of human behaviour in economic contexts. His work on bounded rationality and time preferences has important implications for governance and corporate strategy. Will we see another behavioural economist win the Nobel Prize after Daniel Kahneman and Richard Thaler?

Wildcard!

Looking for more names? The invaluable Tyler Cowen always has insights worth considering. Although perhaps too eclectic and (whisper it) too pragmatic to be a serious contender, Cowen remains an economic encyclopaedia. In the second episode of the Marginal Revolution podcast, he and his colleague Alex Tabarrok made their own predictions. Barro also featured on Cowen’s list, as did Vitalik Buterin, previously mentioned on this blog. A good option for those who can’t wait until Monday midday!