Investment opportunities in a fragmented world
5 min
- Geopolitics is shifting towards a multipolar system (United States, China, Iran, etc.), where the balance of power is based on strategic strengths rather than a single dominant power.
- Modern conflicts and dependence on resources (energy, critical minerals) are reshaping economic and military priorities. Investment in these sectors is crucial for both states and businesses.
- Alliances and trade agreements are multiplying to reduce vulnerabilities, driven by a logic of strategic cooperation rather than unilateral dependence.
The ceasefire that had been looming is now a reality. Donald Trump, through his rhetoric and customary style, had become so entrenched in the Middle East that a well-intentioned or staged lifeline from Pakistan was needed to reach the most desirable outcome for both sides: to ultimately avoid the destruction of all infrastructure in the region.
Aside from the hoped-for easing of human suffering, many questions remain: how sustainable or fragile is this situation? What will Trump’s proclaimed “golden age” for the Middle East look like? What will the ultimate impact on the global economy be? And not least, how will the issue of the Strait of Hormuz be managed?
From a longer-term strategic perspective, it is clear that we are living in an increasingly fragmented world. As drones and new technologies advance on the battlefield, the logic of military conflict is changing. Just as fortresses became less important after the invention of cannons and gunpowder, aircraft carriers and tanks appear less dominant today.
A multipolar world
The United States remains the most powerful country in the world, at least for the time being. However, last year it was forced to back down after threatening to impose import tariffs of up to 130%, when China retaliated by restricting exports of certain rare earth metals. A similar scenario is now unfolding in the Middle East. Despite its military superiority, the U.S. is being driven to the negotiating table because Iran controls access to one of the world’s most important energy arteries.
The world has evolved from a bipolar era (U.S.A. versus the Soviet Union until the 1990s) to a unipolar era, with the U.S. as the dominant hegemon within a system of international cooperation and interdependence, and is now moving to a multipolar era. We are entering a geopolitical era in which politics and security will once again take precedence over economic efficiency. “It is a rupture with the past, not a transition,” said Mark Carney, the Canadian Prime Minister, in his striking speech in Davos. “You cannot live under the illusion of mutual benefit through integration when that very integration becomes the source of your subordination.”
For mid-sized powers, this is a highly challenging and threatening environment. But hegemonic powers cannot monetise their relationships indefinitely. “Allies will diversify their partnerships to hedge against uncertainty,” Carney added. 2025 was already an exceptionally active year for concluding free trade agreements, and 2026 is expected to see a continuation of this trend. What is unique about these agreements is that many major players (the EU, India, EFTA, Mercosur, Canada, etc.) have concluded them simultaneously with a wide range of different partners. “Joint investments in resilience are cheaper than everyone building their own fortresses.”
Investment opportunities
This rupture with the past is giving rise to a more fragmented, complex and volatile world. A world in which technology and access to energy and raw materials are more strategic than ever. For investors, this presents significant opportunities. Technology remains an obvious choice for any portfolio. In addition, this is and will remain one of the largest bull markets for commodities in history. This will not change simply because oil prices are currently easing somewhat. The United States has recognised its excessive dependence on critical minerals and will invest heavily in them. China will seek greater energy independence than ever before. The race is on.
’Europe, too, is waking up to this new reality. If it wants to play a role other than that of a spectator in the future, it must consider its energy independence. Plans for a European integrated electricity network are on the table. However, as always, there is a gap between strong plans and slow implementation. Furthermore, Europe must reduce its dependence on various raw materials and technologies, or diversify its sources. Ultimately, this will determine whether this century will also belong to us in this fragmented world, or whether we remain at the mercy of other nations. Companies that can help reduce these vulnerabilities represent today’s investment opportunities. Whatever form the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz takes, the real issue lies elsewhere.
Koen De Leus & Philippe Gijsels