Second nowcast Q3: 0.3%
5 minutes
Despite the challenging international and budgetary context, the Belgian economy is performing well. Our latest nowcast indicates growth of 0.3% for the current quarter. Furthermore, there are more signs pointing towards higher growth than lower.
Belgium’s GDP rose by just 0.2% between April and June. This came as no surprise to many observers. With the threat of U.S. tariffs dominating the headlines, a dip in business sentiment seemed almost inevitable. However, the National Bank of Belgium’s business confidence indicator saw a rebound in the past month.
The household barometer is at its highest level
This is particularly true for the industrial sector and, to a lesser extent, construction. All sectors are reporting a more positive outlook than a few months ago. Consumer confidence is also rising. The household barometer has reached its highest level this year.
One notable development, fear of unemployment has dropped significantly in recent months, despite the actual unemployment rate rising. Retailers are experiencing greater activity than at any time since the lockdowns imposed during the pandemic, and the property market also appears to be picking up.
Conclusion : quarterly growth is likely to be higher
Combined with anonymised transaction data from our corporate clients, models developed by Ghent University point to an acceleration in growth of at least 0.3%. However, as we are now more than halfway through the current quarter, this outlook should be interpreted with caution. That said, the models used suggest that the risks are mainly on the upside. In other words, based on what we know today, quarterly growth is more likely to be higher than lower.
These figures ultimately led us to revise our annual forecast upwards. For both this year and next, we are now forecasting growth of 1.1%.