- 12/11/2024

First Nowcast for the fourth quarter: 0.3%

3 min

The first nowcast for this still-young fourth quarter stands at 0.3%. Once again, this is a higher result than the 0.2% reported in the flash estimate for the third quarter at the end of last month.

Quarterly growth

It is worth noting that the revised trajectory for the third quarter of 2023 was perilously close to zero growth. This is interesting because the final figure for that quarter had previously indicated an extremely mediocre performance. The revised figure is much more in line with the general sentiment (and our nowcasts) at the time, which had suggested stormy weather for the economy. At the time, other European member states such as Germany and the Netherlands were also flirting with recession. In contrast, the second quarter of 2022 saw a remarkable quarterly growth rate of 1.3%.

It should also be noted that overall GDP has been growing faster since 2021, the year that marks the end of the COVID crisis. The chart below shows how GDP in the second quarter – the latest quarter for which we have the final figures – is about one percentage point higher after revisions over the past 10 quarters.

What lies ahead

Of course, growth above the current quarterly rates is good news, especially in a context of continued monetary easing, which is also improving the outlook for other member states.

Businesses have regained some confidence. This is true of construction firms, retailers, and service providers. In the industrial sector, however, there has been a decline for the fifth month in a row. There has also been a slight improvement among households. While fears of unemployment had recently peaked, households are now much more optimistic about their personal financial situation. This paints a very mixed picture that varies from month to month.

All in all, we are currently forecasting GDP growth of 1.0% for our country in 2024. This is better than the 0.8% forecast for the euro area as a whole. For 2025, however, the roles are reversed: the euro area is expected to grow by 1.5%, compared with 1.2% for Belgium.

The opinions in this blog are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the position of BNP Paribas Fortis.